The warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean has once again attracted the attention of climatologists. Experts are assessing the risks of a new El Niño and explaining what the world can expect.
El Niño–2026 / © Pixabay
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El Niño may return as early as this year and affect weather conditions in many regions of the world. According to estimates from international meteorological services, the probability of this climatic phenomenon developing during June-August 2026 exceeds 80%.
TSN.ua explains what is known about El Niño–2026 and what climatologists expect.
What is known about El Niño–2026 and what consequences do scientists expect
The approach of a new El Niño is predicted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the American Center for Climate Prediction NOAA. According to NOAA, the probability of the phenomenon forming in May-July 2026 is 82%, and its persistence until the winter of 2026–2027 is estimated at 96%.
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon associated with anomalous warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In normal years, trade winds move warm surface waters to the west of the ocean, but during El Niño, these winds weaken, and warm waters shift eastward, affecting weather conditions in various regions of the world.
The consequences of El Niño can vary depending on the country or continent. According to the WMO, for Australia and Indonesia, the phenomenon is often associated with droughts and heat, while for some areas of South America, it brings significant rainfall and floods. In South Asia, it can affect monsoon rains, and in North America, it can influence the trajectories of winter storms.
The WMO notes that most forecast models predict at least a moderate development of El Niño–2026, although some models allow for a stronger event. The previous El Niño of 2023–2024 was among the five strongest in recorded history and was one of the factors that contributed to the record high global temperatures in 2024.
Scientists are also investigating how global warming might affect the behavior of El Niño and La Niña. In particular, a study published in Nature Climate Change in 2014 showed that with further warming, the frequency of extreme El Niño events could double. Later studies in the same journal concluded that even if global warming is limited to 1.5–2°C, the intensity of fluctuations in the ENSO system, which includes El Niño and La Niña, is likely to increase. According to scientists, this could mean sharper transitions between periods of excessive rainfall and droughts in different regions of the world.
At the same time, the WMO emphasizes that modern observation systems allow for the prediction of El Niño development several months before its peak. This enables countries to plan response measures for potential weather risks in advance.
What could be the consequences of a “super” El Niño
Among the possible consequences of a powerful El Niño, experts mention the impact on food production. Disruptions to weather conditions in key agricultural growing regions could affect the supply of coffee, cocoa, fruits, and other commodities. This could also create risks of price increases and shortages of certain products.
In addition, heavy downpours and local floods are possible in various regions of the world, especially in coastal areas. In mountainous regions, heavy snowfall and an increased risk of avalanches are predicted.
Experts also draw attention to the risk of forest fires spreading due to dry weather conditions. According to them, this could pose additional risks to people with asthma and chronic lung diseases.
Another possible consequence mentioned is the impact on marine ecosystems. A sharp increase in water temperature could lead to mass damage to coral reefs, which are already affected by climate change.
Does Ukraine face abnormal heat due to El Niño
The head of the Cherkasy Regional Hydrometeorological Center, Vitaliy Postryhan, urged against panic regarding forecasts of a possible “super” El Niño. According to him, a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean more climate disasters. This phenomenon only increases the probability of certain weather processes but does not guarantee their occurrence.
The meteorologist noted that a trend towards an increase in dangerous weather phenomena is already observed in Ukraine. In particular, in the Cherkasy region, the number of abnormally hot days per season has almost doubled, from 11 to 21. At the same time, strong local thunderstorms, waterspouts, and hail are recorded more frequently.
According to Postryhan’s assessment, heatwaves are possible in Ukraine in the summer, but there are no grounds to talk about constant extreme heat or widespread drought.
He also emphasized that climate change requires systematic preparation, including the development of early warning systems for the population and adaptation of agriculture to new conditions.
What is known about the most devastating El Niño in history
Scientists’ concerns are largely due to historical examples. The strongest El Niño in recorded history lasted from 1877 to 1878 and coincided with large-scale climate anomalies in various parts of the world.
Drought began to develop as early as 1875 and later affected large territories. Crop failures and food crises led to famine in several countries. According to researchers’ estimates, over 50 million people in India, China, Brazil, and other regions of the world died as a result of these events.
At the same time, modern scientists emphasize that the tragedy of the 19th century cannot be explained solely by climatic factors. According to Deepti Singh, an associate professor at the University of Washington, social and political circumstances of the time also played a significant role, including colonial policies that weakened local support mechanisms for the population during crises.
The scientist notes that prolonged droughts, similar to those observed in the 1870s, could recur today. However, the climate system now operates under conditions of higher atmospheric and oceanic temperatures than a century and a half ago.
Since then, forecasting capabilities have significantly improved. The powerful El Niño of 1982–1983 spurred the development of modern monitoring systems, after which international programs for observing the state of the Pacific Ocean began to be actively developed.
In the mid-1990s, a network of special buoys was installed in the Pacific Ocean to collect climate data. Currently, thousands of instruments worldwide track water and air temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed, and other indicators.
Despite technological advancements, researchers warn that a powerful “super” El Niño could affect the food, water, and economic security of many regions of the world. According to Deepti Singh, the increased risk of drought and other extreme weather events could impact interconnected socio-economic systems in various countries.
What happens in the ocean during El Niño
Scientists are also studying how El Niño affects marine ecosystems. A study based on over 20 years of satellite observations has shown that the warming of the ocean’s surface waters can limit the supply of nutrients to phytoplankton – microorganisms that form the base of marine food chains.
For their research, scientists combined satellite observation data with genetic analysis of phytoplankton samples collected in various parts of the world. They studied so-called nutrient stress – a condition that arises from a lack of nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron.
According to scientists, phytoplankton receives nutrients along with cold waters that rise from the ocean depths. However, the warming of surface waters intensifies ocean stratification and hinders the supply of these substances to the upper water layers.
The analysis showed that one of the highest levels of nutrient deficiency was observed in the southern Pacific Ocean. Significant signs of nutrient stress were also found in large subtropical regions of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans.
Separately, researchers analyzed the consequences of the powerful El Niño of 2015–2016. According to their data, sea surface temperatures in some regions increased by 2.3°C at that time. Satellite observations showed that this phenomenon suppressed the upwelling of nutrient-rich deep waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and exacerbated nutrient deficiencies.
Scientists emphasize that phytoplankton is the basis of marine food chains, on which important economic activities depend.
As a reminder, global meteorological centers predict a record “super” El Niño in 2026–2027. According to forecasters’ estimates, the event could be the most powerful in the last century and a half.
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