The Earth’s population, currently exceeding 8 billion people, might face a sharp decline in the future. Scientists have explained the conditions under which humanity risks losing half of its numbers.
World population could sharply decrease / © Pexels
The Earth’s population, currently surpassing 8.3 billion individuals, could experience a significant reduction in the coming decades. Scientists have modeled a scenario where humanity might potentially lose half of its current numbers amidst large-scale global crises.
This was reported by the publication Daily Mail.
Researchers from the University of Milan worked on this study, analyzing approximately 12,000 years of human demographic history, from the Neolithic era to the present day.
Based on the acquired data, scientists developed a mathematical model that replicates population growth patterns across different historical periods. It accounts for times when humanity grew slowly and steadily, and for other phases when growth was extremely rapid.
According to the study’s authors, the current global trajectory does not indicate an inevitable collapse. However, they decided to separately analyze a so-called “worst-case scenario” where ecological and resource limitations drastically reduce Earth’s capacity to sustain the current population.
The researchers hypothesized a situation where the planet’s “carrying capacity”—that is, the maximum number of people Earth can support with resources in the long term—drops to approximately two billion. Under such conditions, the model forecasts a rapid decline in the world’s population, potentially halving humanity by around 2064.
The authors of the work emphasized that they do not consider this scenario an exact prediction of the future. They refer to it as an “illustrative mathematical scenario” demonstrating how sensitive the demographic system can be to drastic global changes.
Among the factors that could theoretically lead to such a development, scientists cited climate collapse, large-scale pandemics, global conflicts, and resource scarcity. Researchers also mentioned global warming, the COVID-19 pandemic, and declining birth rates as causes for concern.
The work also refers to one of the most well-known demographic scenarios of the last century—the so-called “doomsday scenario” proposed in 1960. It was then assumed that the Earth’s population might grow almost uncontrollably, potentially leading to mass extinction. However, modern researchers note that humanity avoided such an outcome as the global birth rate began to gradually decline.
At the same time, the issue of low birth rates also causes concern among researchers. Last year, another study indicated that a birth rate of 2.7 children per woman might be necessary for long-term population maintenance. Previously, a rate of 2.1 was considered sufficient.
For comparison, the average birth rate in the United Kingdom is 1.41 children per woman, and in the USA, it is 1.62. Scientists fear that a further decrease in these rates could lead to a shortage of the working-age population and an increased burden on healthcare and pension systems.
Elon Musk has also repeatedly spoken about the risks of demographic decline. He has stated that low birth rates could result in a lack of workers, increased debt burdens, and pressure on healthcare and pension systems.
As a reminder, Chinese scientists conducted an experiment using artificial human embryos created from stem cells. They were sent to the “Tiangong” space station for research.
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